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Analysis: Land Allocation & Population Disparity in Manipur

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Analysis: Land Allocation & Population Disparity in Manipur

Land allocation disparity

The following shows a Sankey diagram mapping a population of 2,855,794 (as of 2011) to a geographical area of 22,327 square kilometres (as of 2021). For the year 2023, we are looking at over 3.6 million persons within the same geographical area.

We have not separated out forested areas and other regions that may be considered uninhabitable.

Population mapped to geographical area

Land distribution

The following shows the geographical land distribution between the districts of Manipur.

District-wise land areas

Data from the India State of Forest Report 2021, pages 387–394, published by the Forest Survey of India, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate change, ISBN: 978-81-950073-1-18, Website: http://fsi.nic.in/forest-report-2021-details

District-wise forested and un-forested areas

The above shows distribution between forested and non-forested areas.

We have combined the land areas for newer districts (e.g., Imphal East and Imphal West) so that the combined land area is usable when calculating population densities from 1991 onwards (before new districts were created).

Scheduled Tribe privileges

Under the Fifth Schedule of the Indian Constitution, the Scheduled Tribes (ST) are allowed to own land in the hilly region. These are scheduled land protected under the rights of scheduled tribes by the Indian constitution. However, scheduled tribes are also allowed to own and occupy land in the valley, and once owned by a scheduled tribe, valley land ownership may not be easily transferred to a non-ST individual.

Scheduled Castes (SC) mostly own and occupy land in the valley, but few reside in the hilly regions.

Other ethnic groups are only allowed to own and occupy land in the valley.

This is a serious concern for other ethnicities who are not protected, since the valley is already overpopulated.

Projected valley overpopulation

According to the 2022 UN World Population Prospectus, the forecast average population density of India for 2021, 2031 and 2041 as projected by the United Nations are respectively 428, 464 and 492 persons per square kilometre.

Following table shows the estimated population densities (persons per sq km) for 2021, 2031 and 2041 for each district of Manipur based on extrapolated population forecast, and using land area for each district as reported in the 2021 forest survey.

This table shows density relative to non-forested land assuming that non-forest land is inhabitable, which is normally not the case (e.g., land use due to cultivation, roads, rivers and lakes).

District Non-forested Area (sq km) 2021 2031 2041
Bishnupur 146.72 1,856.87 2,127.35 2,437.23
Chandel 501.93 417.25 583.40 815.72
Churachandpur 690.96 498.42 620.06 771.38
Imphal 911.63 1,252.87 1,465.57 1,714.38
Senapati 1,179.21 598.74 988.17 1,630.88
Tamenglong 596.38 301.77 384.92 490.98
Thoubal 454.65 1,120.89 1,340.57 1,603.31
Ukhrul 920.25 259.14 336.47 436.89

The three districts: Bishnupur, Imphal, and Thoubal are informally referred to as the Valley; whereas, the remaining districts are referred to as the Hills. However, we believe that Manipur as a whole should be considered all Hills since the average elevation of the Valley is 790 metres above mean sea level (832.2 metres in the north, and 760.01 metres in the south).

The following shows population density relative to total geographical land area for each district. For Bishnupur, area covered by the Loktak Lake (287 sq km) and Keibul Lamjao National Park (40 sq km) have been excluded before calculating the densities.

District Geographical Area (sq km) 2021 2031 2041
Bishnupur 169 1,612.07 1,846.89 2,115.92
Chandel 3,313 63.21 88.39 123.58
Churachandpur 4,570 75.36 93.75 116.63
Imphal 1,228 930.09 1,087.99 1,272.70
Senapati 3,271 215.85 356.24 587.94
Tamenglong 4,391 40.99 52.28 66.68
Thoubal 514 991.46 1,185.78 1,418.18
Ukhrul 4,544 52.48 68.14 88.48

Population forecast

Following shows the regression lines used to extrapolate populations for 2021, 2031 and 2041 for each district based on the census data from 1991, 2001 and 2011. We fit a generalised linear model using Poisson family with log link. Please note that the Senapati data is anomalous (see Anomalous population growth).

Population forecast using regression

The projected populations for 2021, 2031 and 2041 are:

District 2021 2031 2041
Bishnupur 272,440 312,125 357,591
Chandel 209,429 292,827 409,435
Churachandpur 344,392 428,438 532,996
Imphal 1,142,153 1,336,057 1,562,880
Senapati 706,043 1,165,257 1,923,145
Tamenglong 179,969 229,558 292,809
Thoubal 509,612 609,491 728,946
Ukhrul 238,472 309,639 402,044
Total 3,602,510 4,683,392 6,209,846

The estimated populations for 1991, 2001 and 2011 using the same regression line that we used for the extrapolations are:

District 1991 2001 2011
Bishnupur 181,174 207,565 237,800
Chandel 76,615 107,125 149,783
Churachandpur 178,873 222,526 276,832
Imphal 713,547 834,686 976,391
Senapati 157,058 259,209 427,800
Tamenglong 86,720 110,615 141,093
Thoubal 297,891 356,274 426,101
Ukhrul 108,939 141,450 183,662
Total 1,800,817 2,239,450 2,819,462

The actual populations for 1991, 2001 and 2011 as recorded in the census by the Government of India are:

District 1991 2001 2011
Bishnupur 180,773 208,368 237,399
Chandel 71,014 118,327 144,182
Churachandpur 176,184 227,905 274,143
Imphal 711,261 839,258 974,105
Senapati 208,406 156,513 479,148
Tamenglong 86,278 111,499 140,651
Thoubal 293,958 364,140 422,168
Ukhrul 109,275 140,778 183,998
Total 1,837,149 2,166,788 2,855,794

Anomalous population growth

For the 1991 and 2001 census data, the population count for sub-divisions in Senapati district are missing. Population count for Purul is missing from both 1991 and 2001 census data; whereas, data for Mao-Maram, Paomata, and Saitu Gamphazol are missing in the 2001 census data. These are marked explicitly in the Excel documents supplied by the Government of India (data sources listed below).

We have been unable to ascertain the reason for this missing population count. Furthermore, we are unable to understand the significant jump (marked in red) in population count for Mao-Maram, even after due consideration is given to the missing data. This population growth rate is anomalous.

Sub-division 1991 2001 2011
Mao-Maram 49,902 - 163,380
Paomata 41,435 - 53,901
Purul - - 68,123
Sadar Hills East 40,036 51,438 63,364
Sadar Hills West 77,033 60,945 71,844
Saitu Gamphazol 44,130 - 58,536

Data Sources

The following are the population data files provided by the Government
of India (https://censusindia.gov.in/).